Win probability and rolling a die...
A candidate less likely to win is not necessarily a candidate completely unlikely to win. Candidate A and Candidate B each being given a 50.0% chance to win an election is not so different from Candidate A being given a 66.7% chance to win and Candidate B being given a 33.3% chance to win.
Roll a six-sided die. In the 50.0% - 50.0% chance prediction, Candidate A will win if it lands on one, two or three. Candidate B will win if it lands on four, five or six. But in the 66.7% - 33.3% chance prediction, Candidate B still wins if it lands on five or six (Candidate A wins if it lands on one, two, three or four).
Even if Candidate A is given an 83.3% chance to win and Candidate B is only given a 16.7% chance, Candidate B will win if the die lands on six – a not completely impossible event. If Candidate B is given a 20.0% chance to win, the likelihood of that candidate winning the election would be slightly better than the chance of the die landing on six.
Decision Desk HQ: https://forecast.decisiondeskhq.com/house
The Economist: https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-midterms-2022/forecast/house
JHK Forecasts: https://projects.jhkforecasts.com/2022-midterms/house-forecast/
Race to the WH: https://www.racetothewh.com/house
Decision Desk HQ: https://forecast.decisiondeskhq.com/senate
The Economist: https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-midterms-2022/forecast/senate
JHK Forecasts: https://projects.jhkforecasts.com/2022-midterms/senate-forecast/
Race to the WH: https://www.racetothewh.com/senate/2022
Decision Desk HQ: https://forecast.decisiondeskhq.com/president
The Economist: https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
JHK Forecasts: https://projects.jhkforecasts.com/presidential-forecast/
Lean Tossup: https://leantossup.ca/us-presidency/
The Progress Campaign: https://www.ourprogress.org/forecast
Plural Vote: http://www.pluralvote.com/article/2020-forecast/
Race to the WH: https://www.racetothewh.com/president
Reed Forecasts: https://reedforecasts.com/