WIN PROBABILITY VISUALIZATION FOR ELECTION FORECAST MODELS

WIN PROBABILITY VISUALIZATION FOR ELECTION FORECAST MODELSWIN PROBABILITY VISUALIZATION FOR ELECTION FORECAST MODELSWIN PROBABILITY VISUALIZATION FOR ELECTION FORECAST MODELS

WIN PROBABILITY VISUALIZATION FOR ELECTION FORECAST MODELS

WIN PROBABILITY VISUALIZATION FOR ELECTION FORECAST MODELSWIN PROBABILITY VISUALIZATION FOR ELECTION FORECAST MODELSWIN PROBABILITY VISUALIZATION FOR ELECTION FORECAST MODELS

Election 2022 - U.S. House & Senate

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Eight 2022 Senate Battlegrounds

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Win probability and rolling a die...

chances to win

A candidate less likely to win is not necessarily a candidate completely unlikely to win. Candidate A and Candidate B each being given a 50.0% chance to win an election is not so different from Candidate A being given a 66.7% chance to win and Candidate B being given a 33.3% chance to win.   


Roll a six-sided die. In the 50.0% - 50.0% chance prediction, Candidate A will win if it lands on one, two or three. Candidate B will win if it lands on four, five or six. But in the 66.7% - 33.3% chance prediction, Candidate B still wins if it lands on five or six (Candidate A wins if it lands on one, two, three or four).    


Even if Candidate A is given an 83.3% chance to win and Candidate B is only given a 16.7% chance, Candidate B will win if the die lands on six – a not completely impossible event. If Candidate B is given a 20.0% chance to win, the likelihood of that candidate winning the election would be slightly better than the chance of the die landing on six. 

President 2020 - Model Win Probabilities (US and by State)

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links

HOUSE 2022 FORECAST MODELS

Decision Desk HQ: https://forecast.decisiondeskhq.com/house


The Economist: https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-midterms-2022/forecast/house


FiveThirtyEight: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/house/


JHK Forecasts: https://projects.jhkforecasts.com/2022-midterms/house-forecast/


Race to the WH: https://www.racetothewh.com/house



SENATE 2022 FORECAST MODELS

Decision Desk HQ: https://forecast.decisiondeskhq.com/senate


The Economist: https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-midterms-2022/forecast/senate


FiveThirtyEight: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/

 

JHK Forecasts: https://projects.jhkforecasts.com/2022-midterms/senate-forecast/


Race to the WH: https://www.racetothewh.com/senate/2022



President 2020 forecast models

Decision Desk HQ: https://forecast.decisiondeskhq.com/president


The Economist: https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president


ElectoralPolls: https://electoralpolls.com/


FiveThirtyEight: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ 


JHK Forecasts: https://projects.jhkforecasts.com/presidential-forecast/


Lean Tossup: https://leantossup.ca/us-presidency/


The Progress Campaign: https://www.ourprogress.org/forecast


Plural Vote: http://www.pluralvote.com/article/2020-forecast/


Race to the WH: https://www.racetothewh.com/president


Reed Forecasts: https://reedforecasts.com/


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